According to experts, it is unlikely that potato prices will rise in Georgia in the near future. May is a transitional period when the market switches from last year’s potatoes to the new harvest. Sometimes, if the previous year’s harvest is insufficient until the new harvest arrives in full force, potato prices can increase. However, despite a poor harvest in the Samtskhe-Javakheti region in 2022, prices have remained stable.
The average price for last year’s potatoes on the wholesale market in Georgia is around $0.67/kg and there are no signs of growth. This is due to the already high prices and strong potato imports.
The limited harvest in the Samtskhe-Javakheti region in 2022 led to increased potato prices in October. Since then, the average price has remained stable at a record-high level. Further price increases would likely be problematic, as Georgian consumers are already paying high prices. The average wholesale price in Georgia is the highest within the region.
The price difference has provided opportunities for Georgian importers, who have taken advantage of them. From October 2022 to April 2023, the country imported over 27 thousand tons of potatoes, the second-largest import volume for that period since at least 2015. Importing large volumes has kept prices high but stable in Georgia. Without imports, potatoes would have become much more expensive, especially during the transitional period.
Several factors may contribute to a reduction in potato prices in Georgia. The new harvest of Georgian potatoes entering the market will put downward pressure on prices. Neighbouring countries still offer cheaper potatoes, allowing for potential exports to Georgia, which decreases the likelihood of price increases.
While Russia and Belarus are the main potato exporters to Georgia currently, Turkey may also resume exporting. Although Turkey restricted exports previously to combat inflation, the new season may bring changes. Despite high inflation, reports indicate a promising early harvest in Turkey, which could incentivize exports, potentially including exports to Georgia. As long as the price difference remains significant, exporting to Georgia may be considered.
